The far-reaching impacts of bioclimatic comfort change and sustainable tourism development for western black sea basin: a spatiotemporal study in the context of climate adaptation

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on bioclimatic comfort zones in the Western Black Sea basin, a region known for its natural touristic resources. Using global climate change scenarios and two bioclimatic indices (Discomfort Index and Effective Temperature-taking wind Velocity), we analyze potential shifts in the spatial distribution of comfortable areas. Findings of the Discomfort Index (DI) simulations reveal significant changes by 2100: cold areas, currently covering 88.5% of the region, will decrease to 4.3% under the SSP 585 scenario, while comfortable zones will emerge, covering 54.9% of the area. Effective temperature taking wind Velocity (ETv) simulations indicate dominance of moderately cold (43.9%) and slightly cool areas (44.4%). Additionally, comfort zones (7.9%) will increasingly emerge. These results suggest that the Western Black Sea basin, characterized by a short tourism season and below-average sea temperatures, may develop a more favorable bioclimatic structure, particularly for coastal tourism. This research provides valuable insights for regional development strategies and upper-scale planning, highlighting the potential for increased bioclimatically comfortable areas throughout the basin due to climate change.