Climate Change Effect on Potential Distribution of Anatolian Chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) in the Upcoming Century in Turkiye

Abstract

Climate change, which is effective on a global scale, affects almost all living creatures and ecosystems directly or indirectly. Forests are at the top of the ecosystems that are predicted to be affected more by climate. This study intended to determine how the growth regions of the Anatolian chestnut in Turkiye belong to one of the utmost vital forest tree species, which will be affected by climate change. Within the study scope, suitable areas for the growth of the species in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were determined under different scenario models [intermediate (shared socio-economic pathways 245) and most extreme (shared socio-economic pathway 585)] and compared with the natural distribution areas of today (the year of 2020). As a result of the study, it is predicted that the suitable distribution areas for Anatolian chestnut cultivation will decrease significantly, especially after 2060-2080, and even disappear entirely by 2080, according to the extreme scenarios. Even with the best scenario (shared socio-economic pathway 245), it is projected that the suitable growth regions for Anatolian chestnuts will decrease to one-fifth of today's levels in 2100. It may be recommended to create mixed forests with better-adapted chestnut varieties or origins for future conditions due to being more resilient to various environmental stress factors. In addition, considering the future projections, new chestnut plantations should be established in suitable areas for chestnut production.