WHICH IS MORE EFFECTIVE ON TOURISM, GEOPOLITICAL RISK OR ECONOMIC POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY?

Abstract

We aim to determine the effect of geopolitical risk and economic political uncertainty on the number of international tourist arrivals. In order to identify the countries, Hofstede's uncertainty avoidance index was applied. Considering this index, 16 countries' data on geopolitical risk, economic political uncertainty, and the number of international tourists have been reached. For the period 1997-2019, the Westerlund cointegration test was applied to investigate the relationship between the variables. The results of the panel cointegration test show that the variables are cointegrated. Economic political uncertainty is effective in countries where tourist arrivals are above the uncertainty avoidance index average and geopolitical risk is effective in countries where tourist arrivals are below it. Our aim is for policymakers to make suggestions for sustainable policies by taking the cultural aspects of the countries into account when making decisions about tourism.