Spatial modeling the climate change risk of river basins via climate classification: a scenario-based prediction approach for Türkiye

Abstract

Climate change, triggered by the direct and indirect effects of urbanization, seriously threatens the ecosystem, earth cycles, and vitality. It is quite complex to investigate the reasons for the devastating effect of extreme events that occur with the impact of climate change. However, future projections based on probabilities are needed for governments and urban planning to develop strategies and manage the crisis on a global scale. This research aims to simulate the effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation, and climate classes, which are the basic parameters in spatio-temporal conditions. In this context, within the framework of SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios defined by The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, forecast maps were produced by using De Martonne (IDM), Emberger (IE), and Lang (IL) indexes in twenty-year periods until 2100. IDM reveals that arid areas not included in the area today will constitute 41.96% of the site according to 2100 models. The IE classification estimates that very humid areas will decrease from 58.36 to 0.23%. According to IL, while humid regions (90.86%) occupy a prominent place, they will reduce to 0.42% in 2100 and turn into semi-humid areas (69.43%). The research presents climate risk and the devastating threat facing the world by simulating shifts in the most common climate classes according to different climate class indexes.