Identifying the suitable habitats for Anatolian boxwood (Buxus sempervirens L.) for the future regarding the climate change

Abstract

Distribution of tree species is a function of climatic (such as temperature and precipitation) and topographic (such as altitude, slope, and exposure) parameters. It is thought that any change in climatic parameters would be one of the most effective factors to influence the distribution of species. The adaptation of populations would depend on the phenotypic variation, strength of selection, interspecies competition, and biotic interactions. Moreover, many ecologic and anthropogenic processes that are related with each other would affect the distance of distribution. Hence, the detailed and reliable information about the geographical distribution of species under changing climate conditions is of significant importance for various ecologic and protection practices. For this reason, the present study focused on the estimation and analysis of the potential distribution of Anatolian boxwood in different scenarios (SSPS245 and SSPS585) and the estimation and analysis of environmental factors influencing this distribution. Using the current and future (2040-2060-2080-2100) climate scenarios, the habitats that are suitable for the distribution of Anatolian boxwood in Turkey were modeled using the maximum entropy model and then mapped using ArcGIS software. In determining the potential distribution areas, 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic variables) were used in 21 field-based formation points. The results showed that the most important variables affecting the distribution of species were annual mean temperature (Bio1), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quartile (Bio11), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), precipitation of the driest quartile (Bi017), and precipitation of the warmest quartile (Bio18). According to two future climate change scenarios, the estimation models showed that there might be decreases up to 6% in Anatolian Boxwood population in years 2040–2060 and, in year 2100; the potential area of distribution will shift to north and higher altitudes in comparison to the current ones and increase by 1–4%. The human help needed for maintaining the existence of new species in the suitable distribution areas suggests the necessity of reviewing and re-designing the current forestry plans and silvicultural practices within the context of climate change.