Projection of bioclimatic patterns via CMIP6 in the Southeast Region of Türkiye: A guidance for adaptation strategies for climate policy

Abstract

Over the past three decades, global urbanization and climate change have caused significant differences in climate conditions between urban and rural environments. The effects of global warming affect the climatic values in the urban area. The bioclimatic comfort in an area effectively chooses a site regarding the urban quality of life and activities. This study aims to predict the temporal and spatial changes of the bioclimatic comfort zones of Gaziantep province in terms of climate comfort in the context of long-term global scenarios. The future climate simulation maps were produced and analyzed comparing comfort conditions according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6). Spatio-temporal changes in temperature, humidity, and bioclimatic comfort areas were analyzed to inform these efforts according to Thom’s discomfort index (DI) and effective temperature-taking wind velocity (ETv). The current situation of bioclimatic comfort areas to examine their synergy under extreme hot weather throughout the province and their possible concerns in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were modeled using ArcGIS 10.8 software. SSP585/2100 will create hot (84%) areas, according to DI, and warm (29%) areas, according to ETv. The spatial results of the research are discussed, and some strategies are produced in terms of urban planning, design, and engineering.