Determinants of carbon footprint in the USA: The role of public energy technology R&D, energy security risk, renewable energy transition, and population density

Abstract

Reducing the carbon footprint is essential to mitigating environmental degradation. This study investigates the determinants of the carbon footprint in the United States over the period 1974–2021, focusing on four main drivers: public energy technology R&D, renewable energy transition, energy security risk, and population density. Using the Fourier-augmented ARDL (A-ARDL) model, empirical results confirm a significant cointegration among the variables. Notably, energy security risk, renewable energy transition, and population density are found to significantly reduce the carbon footprint, while public R&D in energy technology has no statistically significant impact. These findings are further validated by robustness checks using FMOLS and CCR estimators. The study emphasizes that while innovation efforts are crucial, their effectiveness in reducing emissions depends on the pace of technological adoption and supporting infrastructure. Based on these results, the study recommends prioritizing renewable energy expansion and investing in energy storage technologies to strengthen environmental sustainability in the USA.