Scopus:
Digital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata—Markov chain modeling

dc.contributor.authorIsinkaralar O.
dc.contributor.authorVarol C.
dc.contributor.authorYilmaz D.
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-11T22:17:22Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-12T00:30:32Z
dc.date.available2023-04-11T22:17:22Z
dc.date.available2023-04-12T00:30:32Z
dc.date.issued2022-12-01
dc.description.abstractPredictive modeling and land use/land cover change studies in complex systems are well advanced. Cellular automata (CA)-Markov chain (MC) can be defined as one frequently preferred method for this purpose. This paper aims to adapt the CA-MC model to the simulation of residential areas in the city. The proposed method was tested in the city center of Kastamonu, Türkiye, using four time periods: 1985, 2011, 2015, and 2021. Spatio-temporal change maps were produced using ArcGIS 10.0 software. Land use simulation of the urban center, including residence units for 2031 and 2057, was performed using the integrated CA-MC technique. The method’s suitability was demonstrated with the Kappa index of agreement values (Kstandart: 0.93; Klocation: 0.98; Kno: 0.98; and KlocationStrata: 0.95). Within the scope of the study, two different scenarios were designed as short term (S1) and long term (S2). According to the predictions for 2031, there was a residential area increase of 15% in S1 and 29% in S2. When we reach 2057, these growth values were measured as 50% according to S1 and 72% according to S2.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s12518-022-00464-w
dc.identifier.issn18669298
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85137433001
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12597/4168
dc.relation.ispartofApplied Geomatics
dc.rightsfalse
dc.subjectGeographic information | Growth modeling | Kappa statistic | Land degradation | LULCC | Spatial analysis
dc.titleDigital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata—Markov chain modeling
dc.typeArticle
dspace.entity.typeScopus
oaire.citation.issue4
oaire.citation.volume14
person.affiliation.nameKastamonu University
person.affiliation.nameGazi Üniversitesi
person.affiliation.nameKastamonu University
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9774-5137
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2432-5745
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9151-0529
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57878476400
person.identifier.scopus-author-id26642784200
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57879267700
relation.isPublicationOfScopus3589fb78-4af3-4ca8-8e62-13da580f2a0e
relation.isPublicationOfScopus.latestForDiscovery3589fb78-4af3-4ca8-8e62-13da580f2a0e

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