Fuel modelling and potential fire behavior in Turkey

Abstract

Description of fuel characteristics is an essential input to fire behavior models that can provide decision-support for fire management. Fuel models describe fuel characteristics for fire modeling systems based on Rothermel's fire spread model. In this study, fire behavior data collected in field experiments in different fuel complexes in Turkey is used in the process of fuel model development. Nine fuel models were built for low and tall maquis, Anatolian black pine (P. nigra J.F. Arnold subsp. nigra var. caramanica (Loudon) Rehder), litter, and slash variable in age and load. BehavePlus simulations of fire rate of spread, flame length and fireline intensity for typical summer weather conditions highlight the quite different fire potential between the studied fuel types. The difficulty in dealing with fuel complexes dominated by live fuels was evident from the simulations. On the contrary, the model correctly predicted the observed temporal decrease of fire behavior in slash. This study shows the crucial importance of experimental fire data to parameterize fuel models.