Sustainable urban growth boundaries for ecological protection via 2046 models of İzmir

Abstract

Long-term sustainable development that urban lands threaten ecological security in developing countries has made it necessary to define urban growth boundaries in terms of spatial planning. Our study creates a framework to determine the boundaries of the urban structure in 1990 and 2018 in İzmir, which is rapidly developing in terms of its form in 2046. With the high immigration, preserving its existing natural structure poses an environmental problem. It estimates with the Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC), based on interactions and constraints, with a multi-scenario approach. In the proposed framework, the validation of future predictions was supported by Kappa coefficients of Kno: 0.9922, Klocation: 0.8747, and KlocationStrata: 0.8747. CA-MC model shows the urban area of İzmir district increased from 104.263 to 150.082 ha according to λMSRA and to 143.665 ha according to λARYA during 2018–2046. While the λMSRA scenario predicts a built-up area of 12.63% by 2046, the λARYA scenario limits it to 12.09%. According to the unique models, when the urban area is left to itself without restrictions, it grows more and pressures other land uses. Urban growth limits must be brought to the agenda for sustainable development and compact urbanization. Graphic Abstract: (Figure presented.)