Discovery of spatial climate parameters and bioclimatic comfort change simulation in Türkiye under socioeconomic pathway scenarios: A basin-scale case study for urban environments

Abstract

Heat waves and extreme weather events caused by climate change increase people’s need for predictable, healthy, and appropriate thermal thresholds in urban areas. The Mediterranean region, where alarming effects are expected, poses a danger to many species and threatens the quality of human life. In the research, predictions were made according to SSP 245 and SSP 585 scenarios from CNRM-CM6-1 climate models using the data of meteorological stations for 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean region via CMIP6 and WorldClim database. The study aims to predict the change in the bioclimatic comfort situation of the region at 20-year intervals until 2100, depending on the periods. The highest annual temperatures seen in the area are 18–20 °C. In the 2100 estimations, areas with a value of 22–24 °C according to SSP 245 and 24–26 °C according to SSP 585 are modeled spatially. While the largest area in the basin today is the area with a humidity range of 62–64%, according to SSP 245, in 2100 predictions, the largest area will be 23% with a humidity level of 56–58%. While the wind speed in the area is currently 0.5–1 m/s, it decreases to 0–0.5 m/s in 36% of the area, according to SSP 585. According to the ETv index, quite cool areas are effective on a 36% area surface. However, in the 2100, compared to the SSP 245, the most comprehensive range is the slightly cool areas with 40%. According to SSP 585, mild areas will have a share of 42%. Warm areas, the most critical class of the index, will begin to form. According to DI, the field has a 58% share in the cold class. According to SSP 585, hot areas have a rate of 26%, and comfortable areas have a rate of 52%. Findings of thermal disturbance variation can help develop solutions to conditions in the context of the climatic values of the region.