Analysis of land use/land cover changes following population movements and agricultural activities: A case study in northern Turkey

Abstract

This study analyzes the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of land use/cover from 1999 to 2014 in the city of Kastamonu, which is located at the center of the western Black Sea Region of Turkey. In this study, Kastamonu constitutes the study area, which is 65% covered with forests. Remote sensing, geographical information systems, and economic and demographic variables have been used for the analysis. The results showed that 0.2% of forested areas have been converted to settlement areas, and 8.5% have been converted to agricultural lands during this period. On the other hand, 12.5% of settlement areas and 30.4% of agricultural lands were transformed into forested area in the same period. A net increase of 15.1% (108768.2 ha) happened in forest areas between 1999 and 2014. The annual percentage of forestation for forest areas within the study period was 0.94% in Kastamonu. In Kastamonu, the most important factor in the increase of forested areas is demographic movement, which decreased agriculture and animal husbandry due to declining populations in rural areas between 1999–2017. The abandoned agricultural areas have turned into forest areas. Grazing pressure on forests has decreased with the decrease in animal husbandry. This has been effective in structural improvements and spatial increase of forest areas. However, the development of substitute products in wood, widespread use of solar energy systems in rural areas, and the construction of more insulated buildings are other factors that are effective in increasing forest areas.