Browsing by Author "Tütüncü, A."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3

Geopolitical risk and tourism in Turkey
(2024.01.01) Tütüncü, A.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to show the effect of Turkey's geopolitical risk on the number of international tourist arrivals to the country. When Turkish economy in 2019 is analyzed, it is seen that the share of tourism in national income is 11%. For this reason, national economy is significantly affected by changing of the number of international tourist arrivals. Security problems are an important variable affecting tourist arrivals.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focused on secondary data for the period 2000-2019 for macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, the number of international tourist arrivals was added as a dependent variable, geopolitical risk as an independent variable, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic freedom index as control variables and inflations as an external variable to the model. The residual augmented least squares-the autoregressive distributive lag (RALS-ADL) cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) coefficient estimator were used. It allows for more robust results to be obtained when the residues do not have a normal distribution.FindingsThe RALS-ADL cointegration test result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables at a 1% significance level. Moreover, the DOLS coefficient estimator results indicate that an increase in economic freedom and GDP increase the number of international tourists, whereas an increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index and inflation decreases the number of international tourism arrival. It can be said that tourists consider the security and economic stability of the host country when making tourism decisions.Originality/valueTurkey is one of the most risky developing countries, as well as one of the most popular travel destinations. When the literature is examined, it has been found that studies for Turkey usually determine the relationship between the variables for a short period of time. However, to ensure sustainable growth and environment of confidence, the long-run relationship between variables should be determined so that policymakers can make more impactful decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to make a literature contribution, taking into account the long-term effects. In addition, unlike other studies, this study fills the gap in literature using the RALS-ADL cointegration test, which produces robust estimators.
Geopolitical risk and tourism in Turkey
(2024) Tütüncü, A.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the effect of Turkey's geopolitical risk on the number of international tourist arrivals to the country. When Turkish economy in 2019 is analyzed, it is seen that the share of tourism in national income is 11%. For this reason, national economy is significantly affected by changing of the number of international tourist arrivals. Security problems are an important variable affecting tourist arrivals. Design/methodology/approach: The paper focused on secondary data for the period 2000–2019 for macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, the number of international tourist arrivals was added as a dependent variable, geopolitical risk as an independent variable, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic freedom index as control variables and inflations as an external variable to the model. The residual augmented least squares–the autoregressive distributive lag (RALS-ADL) cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) coefficient estimator were used. It allows for more robust results to be obtained when the residues do not have a normal distribution. Findings: The RALS-ADL cointegration test result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables at a 1% significance level. Moreover, the DOLS coefficient estimator results indicate that an increase in economic freedom and GDP increase the number of international tourists, whereas an increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index and inflation decreases the number of international tourism arrival. It can be said that tourists consider the security and economic stability of the host country when making tourism decisions. Originality/value: Turkey is one of the most risky developing countries, as well as one of the most popular travel destinations. When the literature is examined, it has been found that studies for Turkey usually determine the relationship between the variables for a short period of time. However, to ensure sustainable growth and environment of confidence, the long-run relationship between variables should be determined so that policymakers can make more impactful decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to make a literature contribution, taking into account the long-term effects. In addition, unlike other studies, this study fills the gap in literature using the RALS-ADL cointegration test, which produces robust estimators.
WHICH IS MORE EFFECTIVE ON TOURISM, GEOPOLITICAL RISK OR ECONOMIC POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY?
(2023.01.01) Tütüncü, A.; Yıldırım, Ş. S.
We aim to determine the effect of geopolitical risk and economic political uncertainty on the number of international tourist arrivals. In order to identify the countries, Hofstede's uncertainty avoidance index was applied. Considering this index, 16 countries' data on geopolitical risk, economic political uncertainty, and the number of international tourists have been reached. For the period 1997-2019, the Westerlund cointegration test was applied to investigate the relationship between the variables. The results of the panel cointegration test show that the variables are cointegrated. Economic political uncertainty is effective in countries where tourist arrivals are above the uncertainty avoidance index average and geopolitical risk is effective in countries where tourist arrivals are below it. Our aim is for policymakers to make suggestions for sustainable policies by taking the cultural aspects of the countries into account when making decisions about tourism.