Towards a Climate-Resilient Metropolis: A Neighborhood-Scale Nature-Based Urban Adaptation Planning Approach

Abstract

This study aims to classify the Heat Risk Index (HRI), a critical component in climate change adaptation efforts, and to demonstrate how the cooling effect of trees influences HRI levels in areas suitable for afforestation. Istanbul, a global metropolis, was selected as the study area. Spatial analyses were conducted at the neighborhood scale. Within this scope, an afforestation scenario was implemented for a selected neighborhood to explore how HRI values could be reduced. The neighborhood-level approach constitutes the distinctive aspect of this study. The HRI analysis was classified into five levels using three interrelated variables: lack of tree canopy, population density, and land surface temperature (LST). ArcGIS Pro 3.5.2, a geographic information systems software, was employed as the primary analytical tool. The analysis revealed that 24.97% of Istanbul’s neighborhoods fell into the “relatively high” risk category, while 36.45% fell into the “higher–intermediate” risk category. In this context, a critical neighborhood sample from the higher–intermediate risk group, representing the largest proportion, was selected for scenario testing. The scenario demonstrated that a 6% increase in afforestation within the neighborhood lowered its HRI classification by one level. As a result, the method applied in this scenario was proven applicable for use in climate adaptation planning.