Browsing by Author "Tutuncu, A."

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Is Geopolitical Risk a Reason or Excuse for Bigger Military Expenditures?
(2024.01.01) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.; Khan, K.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between military expenditures and geopolitical risk using the Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality test over the 1993-2020 period. Considering structural changes, the findings reveal that geopolitical risk fluctuations in Colombia, India, South Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and the USA affect military expenditures. Conversely, the results point out that for Chile, Israel, Russia, Taiwan, and the UK, military expenditures appear to cause geopolitical risk. This highlights that changes in military spending across nations trigger an arms race due to the perception of increased threat by neighbours and/or interest groups. In a nutshell, the results show a complex interplay between military expenditures and geopolitical risk, where changes in one can affect the other. Based upon this, policymakers must prioritize diplomacy, utilize international mediation/peacekeeping initiatives, develop military alliances, and commit to non-threatening military expenditures for regional stability.
The effect of democracy and corruption paradox on economic growth: MINT countries
(Springer, 2024) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.
This study examines the impact of democracy and corruption on the economic growth of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey over the 1975–2022 period. Utilizing the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares coefficient estimator, two models are employed to test hypotheses regarding economic growth. The findings reveal that democracy plays an upgrading role in the economic growth of all MINT countries, while the effect of corruption varies. In Indonesia and Mexico, corruption has a positive impact on growth, reflecting the effect of democracy, whereas Nigeria and Turkey experience a negative impact. The democracy model supports the compatibility hypothesis for all countries, asserting a positive link between democracy and economic growth. However, the corruption model yields divergent results, with Nigeria and Turkey aligning with the “grease in the wheels” hypothesis, implying that corruption can facilitate economic growth by bypassing bureaucratic obstacles, while Indonesia and Mexico support the "sand in the wheels" hypothesis, indicating that corruption hinders economic growth. This highlights the need for governments to strengthen institutions through transparency, accountability, and credibility via robust oversight and governance mechanisms. Therefore, democratic advancement, streamlined bureaucracy, and anti-corruption policies are imperative for sustainable economic growth and welfare.
The effect of democracy and corruption paradox on economic growth: MINT countries
(2024.01.01) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.
This study examines the impact of democracy and corruption on the economic growth of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey over the 1975-2022 period. Utilizing the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares coefficient estimator, two models are employed to test hypotheses regarding economic growth. The findings reveal that democracy plays an upgrading role in the economic growth of all MINT countries, while the effect of corruption varies. In Indonesia and Mexico, corruption has a positive impact on growth, reflecting the effect of democracy, whereas Nigeria and Turkey experience a negative impact. The democracy model supports the compatibility hypothesis for all countries, asserting a positive link between democracy and economic growth. However, the corruption model yields divergent results, with Nigeria and Turkey aligning with the "grease in the wheels" hypothesis, implying that corruption can facilitate economic growth by bypassing bureaucratic obstacles, while Indonesia and Mexico support the "sand in the wheels" hypothesis, indicating that corruption hinders economic growth. This highlights the need for governments to strengthen institutions through transparency, accountability, and credibility via robust oversight and governance mechanisms. Therefore, democratic advancement, streamlined bureaucracy, and anti-corruption policies are imperative for sustainable economic growth and welfare.
Which is more important, foreign direct investment inflow or outflow, on the pollution of European Union countries? Evidence from Panel Fourier symmetric and asymmetric causality
(2023.01.01) Tutuncu, A.; Altin, O.; Yildirim, S.S.
Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of foreign direct investments on countries' environmental policies and pollution levels. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment inflows, outflows, and carbon dioxide emissions for EU (European Union) member states. Accordingly, the data for the period 1993-2019 were subjected to the Panel Fourier symmetric and asymmetric causality tests for 21 EU countries. According to the Panel Fourier symmetric causality test results, the effect of foreign investment outflows on carbon dioxide emissions is more dominant in general. While there is a bidirectional relationship between these variables in the Austrian and Slovak Republics, there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign investment outflows to carbon dioxide emissions in Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, and Portugal. On the other hand, one-way causality was found from foreign investment inflows to carbon dioxide emissions in Belgium, Cyprus, France, Ireland, and Romania and from carbon dioxide emissions to foreign investment inflows in Finland, Greece, and Sweden. According to the Panel Fourier asymmetric causality test results, causality between variables is statistically significant in many countries. This shows that the asymmetric relationship is essential for the variables.