Browsing by Author "Toprak M."

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Convergence of per capita ecological footprint among BRICS-T countries: evidence from Fourier unit root test
(2023-01-01) Bayraktar Y.; Koc K.; Toprak M.; Ozyılmaz A.; Olgun M.F.; Balsalobre-Lorente D.; Soylu O.B.
In recent years there has been a great deal of research into environmental pollution using a variety of techniques in response to growing environmental concerns. Convergence analysis, one of these techniques, helps determine whether the developing countries will catch up with the rich countries in pollution using unit root tests. However, the vast majority of the research in the field has generally used conventional unit root tests. Since many economic series contain structural breaks, using unit root tests that account for structural breaks is essential for accurate prediction. More specifically, if the series has a fractional process, conventional unit root tests may erroneously conclude that the departure from linearity is permanent. Moreover, the existing literature mainly uses gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, which represent pollution weakly. Therefore, we use per capita ecological footprint (EF hereafter) as a more comprehensive pollution indicator of environmental degradation. In this direction, the study aims to determine whether BRICS-T countries' EF converges to the average of the BRICS-T for the 1992–2017 period. Besides the ADF unit root test, we employed the Fourier ADF unit root test, which considers the structural breaks, and the Fractional Frequency Fourier ADF unit root test, which accounts for structural breaks by considering fractional values. Our results showed that EF converges in Russia and Turkey according to the conventional ADF test, in China and Russia according to the Fourier ADF test, and in Brazil and China according to the Fractional Fourier Frequency test.
Role of the Health System in Combating Covid-19: Cross-Section Analysis and Artificial Neural Network Simulation for 124 Country Cases
(2021-01-01) Bayraktar Y.; Özyılmaz A.; Toprak M.; Işık E.; Büyükakın F.; Olgun M.F.
In the fight against Covid-19, developed countries and developing countries diverge in success. This drew attention to the discussion of how different health systems and different levels of health spending are effective in combating Covid-19. In this study, the role of the health system in the fight against Covid-19 is discussed. In this context, the number of hospital beds, the number of doctors, life expectancy at 60, universal health service and the share of health expenditures in GDP were used as health indicators. In the study, firstly 2020 data was estimated by using the Artificial Neural Networks simulation method and this year was used in the analysis. The model, with the data of 124 countries, was estimated using the cross-sectional OLS regression method. The estimation results show that the number of hospital beds, number of doctors and life expectancy at the age of 60 have statistically significant and positive effects on the ratio of Covid-19 recovered/cases. Universal health service and share of health expenditures in GDP are not significant statistically on the cases and recovered. Hospital bed capacity is the most effective variable on the recovered/case ratio.
Socio-Economic, Demographic and Health Determinants of the COVID-19 Outbreak
(2022-04-01) Ozyilmaz A.; Bayraktar Y.; Toprak M.; Isik E.; Guloglu T.; Aydin S.; Olgun M.F.; Younis M.
Objective: In this study, the effects of social and health indicators affecting the number of cases and deaths of the COVID-19 pandemic were examined. For the determinants of the number of cases and deaths, four models consisting of social and health indicators were created. Methods: In this quantitative research, 93 countries in the model were used to obtain determinants of the confirmed cases and determinants of the COVID-19 fatalities. Results: The results obtained from Model I, in which the number of cases was examined with social indicators, showed that the number of tourists, the population between the ages of 15 and 64, and institutionalization had a positive effect on the number of cases. The results obtained from the health indicators of the number of cases show that cigarette consumption affects the number of cases positively in the 50th quantile, the death rate under the age of five affects the number of cases negatively in all quantiles, and vaccination positively affects the number of cases in 25th and 75th quantile values. Findings from social indicators of the number of COVID-19 deaths show that life expectancy negatively affects the number of deaths in the 25th and 50th quantiles. The population over the age of 65 and CO2 positively affect the number of deaths at the 25th, 50th, and 75th quantiles. There is a non-linear relationship between the number of cases and the number of deaths at the 50th and 75th quantile values. An increase in the number of cases increases the number of deaths to the turning point; after the turning point, an increase in the number of cases decreases the death rate. Herd immunity has an important role in obtaining this finding. As a health indicator, it was seen that the number of cases positively affected the number of deaths in the 50th and 75th quantile values and the vaccination rate in the 25th and 75th quantile values. Diabetes affects the number of deaths positively in the 75th quantile. Conclusion: The population aged 15–64 has a strong impact on COVID-19 cases, but in COVID-19 deaths, life expectancy is a strong variable. On the other hand, it has been found that vaccination and the number of cases interaction term has an effect on the mortality rate. The number of cases has a non-linear effect on the number of deaths.
The Impact of Refugees on Income Inequality in Developing Countries by Using Quantile Regression, ANN, Fixed and Random Effect
(2022-08-01) Ozyilmaz A.; Bayraktar Y.; Isik E.; Toprak M.; Olgun M.F.; Aydin S.; Guloglu T.
Refugees affect the hosting countries both politically and economically, but the size of impact differs among these societies. While this effect emerges mostly in the form of cultural cohesion, security, and racist discourses in developed societies, it mostly stands out with its economic dimension such as unemployment, growth, and inflation in developing countries. Although different reflections exist in different societies, the reaction is expected to be higher if it affects social welfare negatively. Accordingly, one of the parameters that should be addressed is the effect of refugees on income distribution since the socio-economic impact is multifaceted. In this study, the effect of refugees on income inequality is analyzed by using quantile regression with fixed effects and Driscoll–Kraay Fixed Effect (FE)/Random Effect (RE) methods for the period of 1991 to 2020 in the 25 largest refugee-hosting developing countries. According to the findings of the study, the functional form of the relationship between refugees and income inequality in the countries is N-shaped. Accordingly, refugees first increase income inequality, decrease it after reaching a certain level, and then start increasing it, albeit at a low level.
The Relationship between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth in EU Countries: Empirical Evidence Using Panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality Test and Regression Models
(2022-11-01) Ozyilmaz A.; Bayraktar Y.; Isik E.; Toprak M.; Er M.B.; Besel F.; Aydin S.; Olgun M.F.; Collins S.
The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of health expenditures on economic growth in the period 2000–2019 in 27 European Union (EU) countries. First, the causality relationship between the variables was analyzed using the panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Causality test. The findings demonstrate a bidirectional causality relationship between health expenditures and economic growth on a panel basis. Secondly, the effects of health expenditures on economic growth were examined using the Random Forest Method for the panel and then for each country. According to the Random Forest Method, health expenditures positively affected economic growth, but on the country basis, the effect was different. Then, government health expenditures, private health expenditures, and out-of-pocket expenditures were used, and these three variables were ranked in order of importance in terms of their effects on growth using the Random Forest Method. Accordingly, government health expenditures were the most important variable for economic growth. Finally, Support Vector Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, and Decision Tree Regression models were designed for the simulation of the data used in this study, and the performances of the designed models were analyzed.