Browsing by Author "Thurm E.A."

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Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests
(2018-12-15) Thurm E.A.; Hernandez L.; Baltensweiler A.; Ayan S.; Rasztovits E.; Bielak K.; Zlatanov T.M.; Hladnik D.; Balic B.; Freudenschuss A.; Büchsenmeister R.; Falk W.
This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies.
Effect of climate change on potential distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) in the twenty-first century in Turkey
(2022-04-01) Ayan S.; Bugday E.; Varol T.; Özel H.B.; Thurm E.A.
The rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative effects on ecosystem services by causing significant shrinkage or shift of forest distribution particularly in Mediterranean basin. In this study, it was aimed to determine the distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) by modelling the current and future potential locations of the habitats. With Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted its distribution under current and future conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Turkey. Modelling was performed by using eight bioclimatic variables that show significant relationship to the current distribution of oriental beech and were widely used in the literature. The fitted model had high quality (93.5% AUC) and is biological meaningful. The prediction of warmer condition in future showed that the populations on the southern slopes of the North Anatolian Mountains were expected to shrink and that there would be reduction in the populations found in the main distribution area in the Istranca Mountains and the Northern Anatolia, especially in populations in the transition zone of Central Anatolia. Also, oriental beech would lose its isolated-marginal populations in the southeast of Turkey. The results highlight the importance of a genetic conservation programme for beech population in Turkey. Otherwise, the genetic pools seem to extinct under climate change. Furthermore, the paper is intended to provide a starting point for a monitoring of oriental beech at the edge of its distribution, to observe its climatic migration.