Browsing by Author "Isinkaralar O."

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A cellular automata-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of the city center as a complex system: The case of Kastamonu, Türkiye
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar O.; Varol C.
Cities are located at the intersection of global interactions and analytical modeling of space is an essential progression to understand the organizational structure of today's cities, which consist of complex networks and self-organizing processes that affect their nonlinear development. The cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) modeling is a preferred method in predictive modeling and land use change studies of complex systems. It is widely used in modeling land use/land cover change. In this paper, the land use change between 1985-2021 in the Kastamonu city center has been examined within the framework of complexity theory. It is aimed to develop a quantitative model for the comparative measurement of temporal complexity variation. In this context, scenarios were designed with two basic approaches; self-organizing and planned city center development and simulations were made for the years 2031 and 2057. The agreement of the model was tested with Kappa statistical values, which resulted to be >0.9438.
A Climate-Sensitive Approach for Determining the Urban Growth Boundaries: Towards a Spatial Exploration for Bursa, Türkiye
(American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2023) Isinkaralar O.
Population growth is inevitable in urban areas responsible for climate crises worldwide, and urban development is affected by processes fed by many dynamics. Predicting and planning the growth limits of the city effectively is a critical issue for achieving sustainable urban growth and managing climate risks. The study used the cellular automata-Markov chain method to define development areas regarding natural structure and land use/land cover. It aimed to present a method that can be applied to different urban areas by focusing on effective urban growth management with a climate-sensitive approach. It offered a climate-sensitive approach to determining growth limits according to scenarios. The boundaries of 2030 have been determined for the city of Bursa, which exhibited an increased average summer value of the land surface temperature from 24°C to 45°C between 2012 and 2021, stands out with its natural riches, and shows a rapid urban growth trend. The proposed method modeled the limits of urban growth with a climate-sensitive approach, and the model's suitability was demonstrated by Kappa statistics (Klocation = 0.8884). The determined urban boundary will reduce the rate of the urban built-up area from 86% to 70% by 2030. © 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
A Methodological Benchmark in Determining the Urban Growth: Spatiotemporal Projections for Eskişehir, Türkiye
(2024-12-01) Isinkaralar O.
Assessing the possibility of airborne bismuth accumulation and spatial distribution in an urban area by tree bark: A case study in Düzce, Türkiye
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar K.; Isinkaralar O.; Koç İ.; Özel H.B.; Şevik H.
Heavy metal accumulation has been a hot topic of many studies in recent years, as they are toxic elements that can be highly harmful to human health and the environment. The metal concentrations of some trees used for monitoring air quality give information about the pollutant sources in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, P. pinaster, C. arizonica, P. orientalis, C. atlantica, and P. menziesii were determined to investigate their use as biomonitors for air quality. Metallic bismuth and bismuth compounds, which have been widely used in several industries, have low toxicity to humans, although bismuth toxicity can show over-dosage depending on its application. The variability of bismuth levels in the organs of the species was investigated to explain atmospheric deposition over the years. The bismuth accumulation of C. arizonica and P. pinaster increases depending on time interval. The ascending-descending trend in other species could not be obtained clearly via dry and wet deposition of atmospheric metals. Our analysis reveals that the total deposit (barks and wood) of P. pinaster, C. arizonica, P. orientalis, C. atlantica, and P. menziesii were 134, 115, 94, 131, and 148 mg/kg, respectively, and they have been quite clearly reflected atmospheric bismuth deposition. The bismuth concentration has significantly increased since the 1983 sampling; P. menziesii can be valuable bioindicators for highlighting polluted areas. Compared with the traditional air samplers, the proposed P. menziesii bioindicator is proven to be more effective, low cost, and sustainable and thus has broad application prospects in bismuth concentration.
Bioclimatic comfort in urban planning and modeling spatial change during 2020–2100 according to climate change scenarios in Kocaeli, Türkiye
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar O.
The concentration of human activities in urban areas, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and high global temperature values in urban areas have accelerated the research on global warming. They are the most widely used bioclimatic indices to describe the level of thermal sensation experienced by a person due to the changing climatic conditions of an urban area. Thermal comfort is an interdisciplinary spatial issue and a parameter directly affecting urban outdoor land uses. Thom's discomfort index was used to simulate two different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to predict the temporal and spatial changes of surface temperature, relative humidity, and bioclimatic comfort zones of Kocaeli province in terms of climate comfort in the context of SSP 245 and SSP 585 scenarios of IPCC. The current bioclimatic comfort areas throughout the region and their possible situations in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were modeled using ArcGIS 10.8 software. In the current map, 79.6% of the city consists of cool areas, 18.6% of cold, and 1.8% of comfortable regions. According to the SSP 245 scenario for the year 2100, it is observed that the cool and cold areas warm up, and the comfortable areas increase to 23.5%. According to the SSP 585 scenario, it was determined that comfortable areas reached 82.6%, and hot areas were formed in the province. The geographical structure's effect on the regions' heating draws attention.
Bioclimatic comfort in urban planning and modeling spatial change during 2020–2100 according to climate change scenarios in Kocaeli, Türkiye
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar O.
The concentration of human activities in urban areas, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and high global temperature values in urban areas have accelerated the research on global warming. They are the most widely used bioclimatic indices to describe the level of thermal sensation experienced by a person due to the changing climatic conditions of an urban area. Thermal comfort is an interdisciplinary spatial issue and a parameter directly affecting urban outdoor land uses. Thom's discomfort index was used to simulate two different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to predict the temporal and spatial changes of surface temperature, relative humidity, and bioclimatic comfort zones of Kocaeli province in terms of climate comfort in the context of SSP 245 and SSP 585 scenarios of IPCC. The current bioclimatic comfort areas throughout the region and their possible situations in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were modeled using ArcGIS 10.8 software. In the current map, 79.6% of the city consists of cool areas, 18.6% of cold, and 1.8% of comfortable regions. According to the SSP 245 scenario for the year 2100, it is observed that the cool and cold areas warm up, and the comfortable areas increase to 23.5%. According to the SSP 585 scenario, it was determined that comfortable areas reached 82.6%, and hot areas were formed in the province. The geographical structure's effect on the regions' heating draws attention.
Climate-related spatial reduction risk of agricultural lands on the Mediterranean coast in Türkiye and scenario-based modelling of urban growth
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar O.; Isinkaralar K.; Yilmaz D.
Digital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata—Markov chain modeling
(2022-12-01) Isinkaralar O.; Varol C.; Yilmaz D.
Predictive modeling and land use/land cover change studies in complex systems are well advanced. Cellular automata (CA)-Markov chain (MC) can be defined as one frequently preferred method for this purpose. This paper aims to adapt the CA-MC model to the simulation of residential areas in the city. The proposed method was tested in the city center of Kastamonu, Türkiye, using four time periods: 1985, 2011, 2015, and 2021. Spatio-temporal change maps were produced using ArcGIS 10.0 software. Land use simulation of the urban center, including residence units for 2031 and 2057, was performed using the integrated CA-MC technique. The method’s suitability was demonstrated with the Kappa index of agreement values (Kstandart: 0.93; Klocation: 0.98; Kno: 0.98; and KlocationStrata: 0.95). Within the scope of the study, two different scenarios were designed as short term (S1) and long term (S2). According to the predictions for 2031, there was a residential area increase of 15% in S1 and 29% in S2. When we reach 2057, these growth values were measured as 50% according to S1 and 72% according to S2.
Monitoring the spatial distribution pattern according to urban land use and health risk assessment on potential toxic metal contamination via street dust in Ankara, Türkiye
(2023-09-01) Isinkaralar O.; Isinkaralar K.; Bayraktar E.P.
Projection of bioclimatic patterns via CMIP6 in the Southeast Region of Türkiye: A guidance for adaptation strategies for climate policy
(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Isinkaralar O.; Isinkaralar K.
Over the past three decades, global urbanization and climate change have caused significant differences in climate conditions between urban and rural environments. The effects of global warming affect the climatic values in the urban area. The bioclimatic comfort in an area effectively chooses a site regarding the urban quality of life and activities. This study aims to predict the temporal and spatial changes of the bioclimatic comfort zones of Gaziantep province in terms of climate comfort in the context of long-term global scenarios. The future climate simulation maps were produced and analyzed comparing comfort conditions according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6). Spatio-temporal changes in temperature, humidity, and bioclimatic comfort areas were analyzed to inform these efforts according to Thom’s discomfort index (DI) and effective temperature-taking wind velocity (ETv). The current situation of bioclimatic comfort areas to examine their synergy under extreme hot weather throughout the province and their possible concerns in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were modeled using ArcGIS 10.8 software. SSP585/2100 will create hot (84%) areas, according to DI, and warm (29%) areas, according to ETv. The spatial results of the research are discussed, and some strategies are produced in terms of urban planning, design, and engineering.
Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metal Contamination in Road Dust Samples from an Urban Environment in Samsun, Türkiye
(2023-04-01) Istanbullu S.N.; Sevik H.; Isinkaralar K.; Isinkaralar O.
Road dust is an environmental pollution indicator created by human activities for urban land use. This study aimed to determine the spatial distribution pattern and degree of trace metals in road dust samples collected from 5 different areas in Samsun city center. The trace metals of Mn, Co, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn are the most examined contaminants in road dust because their hot-spot areas were mainly associated with high traffic density. Factors governing potential contamination index range values of Co, Cr, and Ni were 0.34–0.62, 0.23–0.78, and 0.24–0.48 as the lowest contamination. However, potential contamination index values of Cu, Pb, and Zn in the main road site were 1.80, 2.32, and 2.84 suggesting that relatively high values were uncontaminated to moderately. Pollution assessment methods were applied to toxic metals and revealed that Samsun city had been affected as uncontaminated to moderately contaminated by anthropogenic emission of heavy metals.
Spatio-temporal patterns of climate parameter changes in Western Mediterranean basin of Türkiye and implications for urban planning
(2023-01-01) Isinkaralar O.