Browsing by Author "Cantürk, U."

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Climate Change Effect on Potential Distribution of Anatolian Chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) in the Upcoming Century in Turkiye
(2023.01.01) Çobanoglu, H.; Cantürk, U.; Koç, I.; Kulaç, S.; Sevik, H.
Climate change, which is effective on a global scale, affects almost all living creatures and ecosystems directly or indirectly. Forests are at the top of the ecosystems that are predicted to be affected more by climate. This study intended to determine how the growth regions of the Anatolian chestnut in Turkiye belong to one of the utmost vital forest tree species, which will be affected by climate change. Within the study scope, suitable areas for the growth of the species in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were determined under different scenario models [intermediate (shared socio-economic pathways 245) and most extreme (shared socio-economic pathway 585)] and compared with the natural distribution areas of today (the year of 2020). As a result of the study, it is predicted that the suitable distribution areas for Anatolian chestnut cultivation will decrease significantly, especially after 2060-2080, and even disappear entirely by 2080, according to the extreme scenarios. Even with the best scenario (shared socio-economic pathway 245), it is projected that the suitable growth regions for Anatolian chestnuts will decrease to one-fifth of today's levels in 2100. It may be recommended to create mixed forests with better-adapted chestnut varieties or origins for future conditions due to being more resilient to various environmental stress factors. In addition, considering the future projections, new chestnut plantations should be established in suitable areas for chestnut production.
Possible Changes of Pinus nigra Distribution Regions in Türkiye with the Impacts of Global Climate Change
(North Carolina State University, 2024) Cantürk, U.; Koç, İ.; Özel, H.B.; Şevik, H.
Global climate change poses significant threats to ecosystems worldwide, particularly impacting long-lived forest tree species such as Pinus nigra. This study assessed the potential shifts in distribution areas for Pinus nigra, an important tree species, one highly vulnerable to global climate change, given its prevalence in continental climates, in Türkiye under different climate scenarios (SSPs 585 and 245). In this study, suitable distribution regions of Pinus nigra were evaluated based on SSPs 585 and SSPs 245 using nine different models. Results indicated potential losses in Pinus nigra distribution areas ranging from 15.0% to 43.5% (SSPs 245) and 19.7% to 48.9% (SSPs 585) by 2100. However, in 2100, new suitable distribution areas are expected to be formed at rates ranging from 13.8% to 32.1% and 15.1% to 34.4% according to the above scenarios. Because most of the newly formed suitable distribution regions are quite far from the areas where the species currently spreads, it seems necessary to provide the migration mechanism needed by the species by humans to prevent population losses in this process.
Shifts That May Appear in Climate Classifications in Bursa Due to Global Climate Change
(Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, 2024) Arıcak, B.; Cantürk, U.; Koç, İ.; Erdem, R.; Şevik, H.
Global climate change (GCC) is defined as a process that is considered the most crucial problem of the current century and will affect all living things and ecosystems in the world. In order to specify the potential impacts of this phenomenon, which does not seem possible to stop, it is necessary first to predict the change in climate types. Therefore, the current study aimed to define the shift of climate classifications (according to De Martonne, Erinç, and Emberger climate category) in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 for Bursa, one of the largest cities in Türkiye, according to the SSPs 245 and SSPs585 scenarios, and compare it with its current situation. As a result, it was determined that the climate types in Bursa province would change significantly and primarily manifest as a shift into arid climate types. It is recommended to take precautions on a sectoral basis to avoid the devastating effects of GCC.