Browsing by Author "Bayraktar, Y."

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Is Geopolitical Risk a Reason or Excuse for Bigger Military Expenditures?
(2024.01.01) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.; Khan, K.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between military expenditures and geopolitical risk using the Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality test over the 1993-2020 period. Considering structural changes, the findings reveal that geopolitical risk fluctuations in Colombia, India, South Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and the USA affect military expenditures. Conversely, the results point out that for Chile, Israel, Russia, Taiwan, and the UK, military expenditures appear to cause geopolitical risk. This highlights that changes in military spending across nations trigger an arms race due to the perception of increased threat by neighbours and/or interest groups. In a nutshell, the results show a complex interplay between military expenditures and geopolitical risk, where changes in one can affect the other. Based upon this, policymakers must prioritize diplomacy, utilize international mediation/peacekeeping initiatives, develop military alliances, and commit to non-threatening military expenditures for regional stability.
Pandemics, Income Inequality, and Refugees: The Case of COVID-19
(2024.01.01) Büyükakin, F.; Özyilmaz, A.; Isik, E.; Bayraktar, Y.; Olgun, M.F.; Toprak, M.
Refugees are more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to factors such as low standard of living, accommodation in crowded households, difficulty in receiving health care due to high treatment costs in some countries, and inability to access public health and social services. The increasing income inequalities, anxiety about providing minimum living conditions, and fear of being unemployed compel refugees to continue their jobs, and this affects the number of cases and case-related deaths. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of refugees and income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths in 95 countries for the year 2021 using Poisson regression, Negative Binomial Regression, and Machine Learning methods. According to the estimation results, refugees and income inequalities increase both COVID-19 cases and deaths. On the other hand, the impact of income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths is stronger than on refugees.
Pandemics, Income Inequality, and Refugees: The Case of COVID-19
(Routledge, 2024) Büyükakın, F.; Özyılmaz, A.; Işık, E.; Bayraktar, Y.; Olgun, M.F.; Toprak, M.
Refugees are more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to factors such as low standard of living, accommodation in crowded households, difficulty in receiving health care due to high treatment costs in some countries, and inability to access public health and social services. The increasing income inequalities, anxiety about providing minimum living conditions, and fear of being unemployed compel refugees to continue their jobs, and this affects the number of cases and case-related deaths. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of refugees and income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths in 95 countries for the year 2021 using Poisson regression, Negative Binomial Regression, and Machine Learning methods. According to the estimation results, refugees and income inequalities increase both COVID-19 cases and deaths. On the other hand, the impact of income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths is stronger than on refugees.
The effect of democracy and corruption paradox on economic growth: MINT countries
(Springer, 2024) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.
This study examines the impact of democracy and corruption on the economic growth of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey over the 1975–2022 period. Utilizing the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares coefficient estimator, two models are employed to test hypotheses regarding economic growth. The findings reveal that democracy plays an upgrading role in the economic growth of all MINT countries, while the effect of corruption varies. In Indonesia and Mexico, corruption has a positive impact on growth, reflecting the effect of democracy, whereas Nigeria and Turkey experience a negative impact. The democracy model supports the compatibility hypothesis for all countries, asserting a positive link between democracy and economic growth. However, the corruption model yields divergent results, with Nigeria and Turkey aligning with the “grease in the wheels” hypothesis, implying that corruption can facilitate economic growth by bypassing bureaucratic obstacles, while Indonesia and Mexico support the "sand in the wheels" hypothesis, indicating that corruption hinders economic growth. This highlights the need for governments to strengthen institutions through transparency, accountability, and credibility via robust oversight and governance mechanisms. Therefore, democratic advancement, streamlined bureaucracy, and anti-corruption policies are imperative for sustainable economic growth and welfare.
The effect of democracy and corruption paradox on economic growth: MINT countries
(2024.01.01) Tutuncu, A.; Bayraktar, Y.
This study examines the impact of democracy and corruption on the economic growth of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey over the 1975-2022 period. Utilizing the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares coefficient estimator, two models are employed to test hypotheses regarding economic growth. The findings reveal that democracy plays an upgrading role in the economic growth of all MINT countries, while the effect of corruption varies. In Indonesia and Mexico, corruption has a positive impact on growth, reflecting the effect of democracy, whereas Nigeria and Turkey experience a negative impact. The democracy model supports the compatibility hypothesis for all countries, asserting a positive link between democracy and economic growth. However, the corruption model yields divergent results, with Nigeria and Turkey aligning with the "grease in the wheels" hypothesis, implying that corruption can facilitate economic growth by bypassing bureaucratic obstacles, while Indonesia and Mexico support the "sand in the wheels" hypothesis, indicating that corruption hinders economic growth. This highlights the need for governments to strengthen institutions through transparency, accountability, and credibility via robust oversight and governance mechanisms. Therefore, democratic advancement, streamlined bureaucracy, and anti-corruption policies are imperative for sustainable economic growth and welfare.
The role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: Emerging markets and middle-income economies
(Borsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketi, 2023) Bayraktar, Y.; Ozyilmaz, A.; Toprak, M.; Olgun, M.F.; Isik, E.
In this study, the relationship between economic growth and financial development was analyzed for emerging markets and middle-income economies. The effect of financial development on growth, whether there is institutional quality or not, has also been investigated. In addition, which financial development indicator is more effective for growth has been examined. Six institutional quality indicators and seven financial development indicators were used. According to the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test results, there is a causality relationship between all financial development indicators and growth. According to the estimation results, financial development indicators have a positive effect on growth in the presence of institutional quality. However, if institutionalization is not included in the model, the effect of financial development indicators on economic growth is statistically insignificant.
The role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: Emerging markets and middle-income economies
(2023.01.01) Bayraktar, Y.; Ozyilmaz, A.; Toprak, M.; Olgun, M.F.; Isik, E.
In this study, the relationship between economic growth and financial development was analyzed for emerging markets and middle-income economies. The effect of financial development on growth, whether there is institutional quality or not, has also been investigated. In addition, which financial development indicator is more effective for growth has been examined. Six institutional quality indicators and seven financial development indicators were used. According to the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test results, there is a causality relationship between all financial development indicators and growth. According to the estimation results, financial development indicators have a positive effect on growth in the presence of institutional quality. However, if institutionalization is not included in the model, the effect of financial development indicators on economic growth is statistically insignificant. Copyright (c) 2023 Borsa Istanbul Anonim S,irketi. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).