New records of marbled polecat, Vormela peregusna (Guldenstaedt, 1770) in Türkiye, current and potential distribution under climate change

Abstract

The marbled polecat, Vormela peregusna (Güldenstäedt, 1770) is a member of the Mustelidae family. Although this rare species has a wide distribution at the local or regional level in Türkiye, it is represented with a low population. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), the marbled polecatis listed in the Vulnerable (VU) category. In this study, we first determined location information on social media platforms (YouTube and Instagram), GBIF, TRAMEM, and literature studies to assess the current distribution areas of the species in Türkiye. As a result of research conducted through different sources, we determined the species' recorded existence in 103 locations in Türkiye. Moreover, as a result of the field studies, a rare species was observed and recorded in Kastamonu province. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method to model the species' current and future potential distribution areas depending on two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). When the modeling results were evaluated, it was seen that the AUC values of the climate change scenarios were between 0.89 and 0.91. According to jackknife test results, Bio14 was the most important bioclimatic variable contributing to the marbled polecat potential distribution model for SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios. Modeling results provide a basis for making current and future predictions of the regional distribution of marbled polecat in Türkiye according to climate change scenarios.