Possible Changes in Red Pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) Distribution Areas in Kastamonu due to Global Climate Change

Abstract

In this study, it was aimed to determine the current status of red pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) distribution areas in Kastamonu Forestry Regional Directorate, which is the Forestry Regional Directorate with the highest production in Türkiye, and the possible changes in suitable distribution areas due to global climate change. In the study, in addition to the current suitable distribution areas of red pine (Pinus brutia Ten.), suitable distribution areas in 2040, 2070 and 2100 according to SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585 scenarios were determined. The results of the study show that there may be a loss of more than 15% (approximately 114,5 km2) in the suitable distribution areas of red pine populations in Kastamonu until 2100 due to the effects of climate change. It does not seem possible for the species to adapt to these changes without human intervention. Therefore, it is recommended that necessary adjustments should be made in forest management plans taking into account the results of the study.