Comparative assessment of AHP and FRM approaches for susceptibility mapping of pine processionary moth

Abstract

This study aims to develop susceptibility maps for the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) via multi-criteria decision-making methodologies. This study utilized data on forest stands affected by PPM damage within the Nurdağı Forest Planning Unit in Gaziantep province from 2018 to 2024. Parameters including stand structure, crown closure, development stage, elevation, slope, aspect, annual mean temperature, solar radiation, and annual mean precipitation parameters were used to create the PPM susceptibility maps according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Frequency Ratio Method (FRM). Their precision was evaluated by Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The AHP model indicates that 73% of the forest stands with PPM damage fall into the high and extreme susceptibility groups, whereas the FRM model shows that 68% of such forest stands are similarly categorized. The AUC values for the FRM and AHP models were determined to be 0.830 and 0.835, respectively. The results reveal that the PPM susceptibility maps generated using the AHP and FRM models are reliable.